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Expected moves for the week ahead: SPY, QQQ, FDX, ADBE, XRT, XHB and more.
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Expected moves for the week ahead: SPY, QQQ, FDX, ADBE, XRT, XHB and more.

Expected moves for the week ahead: SPY, QQQ, FDX, ADBE, XRT, XHB and more.

Last Week

Options prices started last week pricing in a possible big move lower in the indices. When that didn't come to fruition (actual moves finished the week much smaller than expected moves) volatility compressed a bit:

  • VIX closed Friday at 26.87, down on the week (from the low 30's).
  • Last week's expected move in SPY: 2.8%
  • Last week’s actual move SPY: -1.0%
  • Last week's expected move in QQQ: 4.6%
  • Last week's actual move in QQQ: -0.8%

This Week

Note the smaller expected moves for this week, despite the fact that last week had one less day of trading:

This week’s expected move in SPY, via Options AI technology: 2.5%

This week’s expected move in QQQ: 3.3%:

And here's how two of the most watched stocks at the moment, Tesla and Apple's moves compare with the big indices over the next month, and for this week:

Earnings Calendar

Earnings announcements are light this week as we're in the lull between quarters. This week's earnings of note, expected move and its actual move last earnings.

Monday 4:35pm - LEN | expected move: 6.1%  (last earnings: +0.7%)

Tuesday 8:00am - CBRL | expected move: 6.5%  (last earnings: -0.6%)

Tuesday 4:00pm - FDX | expected move: 8.7%  (last earnings: +11.7%)

Tuesday 4:05pm - ADBE | expected move: 7.0%  (last earnings: +4.9%)

Economic Data Calendar

On the Economic Data front we'll see retail sales on Wednesday (morn) and homebuilder and housing starts data on Wednesday and Thursday (morn).

XRT - Retail ETF expected move: 2.9%

XHB - Homebuilders ETF expected move: 2.6%

Actionable Insights from the Options Market

Earnings event expected moves
Unusual activity alerts
Spread trade education

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