Options prices started last week pricing in a possible big move lower in the indices. When that didn't come to fruition (actual moves finished the week much smaller than expected moves) volatility compressed a bit:
- VIX closed Friday at 26.87, down on the week (from the low 30's).
- Last week's expected move in SPY: 2.8%
- Last week’s actual move SPY: -1.0%
- Last week's expected move in QQQ: 4.6%
- Last week's actual move in QQQ: -0.8%
Note the smaller expected moves for this week, despite the fact that last week had one less day of trading:
This week’s expected move in SPY, via Options AI technology: 2.5%
This week’s expected move in QQQ: 3.3%:
And here's how two of the most watched stocks at the moment, Tesla and Apple's moves compare with the big indices over the next month, and for this week:
Earnings announcements are light this week as we're in the lull between quarters. This week's earnings of note, expected move and its actual move last earnings.
Monday 4:35pm - LEN | expected move: 6.1% (last earnings: +0.7%)
Tuesday 8:00am - CBRL | expected move: 6.5% (last earnings: -0.6%)
Tuesday 4:00pm - FDX | expected move: 8.7% (last earnings: +11.7%)
Tuesday 4:05pm - ADBE | expected move: 7.0% (last earnings: +4.9%)
Economic Data Calendar
On the Economic Data front we'll see retail sales on Wednesday (morn) and homebuilder and housing starts data on Wednesday and Thursday (morn).
XRT - Retail ETF expected move: 2.9%
XHB - Homebuilders ETF expected move: 2.6%