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Boeing (BA) - Earnings, expected move and strike selection.
3 min read

Boeing (BA) - Earnings, expected move and strike selection.

Boeing (BA) - Earnings, expected move and strike selection.

  • Expected move from OptionsAI technology: 2 weeks 15.5%, 3 months 32.5%
  • Bullish and bearish consensus in the options market seem to be targeting recent highs and lows in the stock, but 3 months out, not on earnings.
  • Multi leg spreads can look to take advantage of that insight for a shorter time frame.

Overview

The Boeing Company (BA) is expected to announce a large quarterly loss in per share earnings on declining revenue when they release 1st quarter earnings on the 29th.

  • BA reports Wednesday April 29th 7:30am ET
  • Consensus Expectations: ¬†Earnings ($2.08) Revenue: ¬†$18.74 Bil

The Set Up

BA fell from nearly $350 in February to under $100 in March. A sharp bounce followed with the stock getting back near $180 but is now back below $140. The expected move in the options market for the next 3 months shows bullish consensus to the bounce back highs and bearish to the recent lows. The stock is currently in no mans land, almost exactly between the two.

From OptionsAI technology, 3 month expected move:

Ways to Play

The expected move is acting like an identifier of technical support and resistance based on recent pivot points in the stock. That is not uncommon as buyers and sellers of options are all looking at the same recent levels. Trades can take advantage of that insight from the options market by taking what the market is giving and not wasting excess money on moves back to extremes the market doesn't expect for another 3 months

Bullish: price target using OptionsAI technology for +20% in 30 days (inline with expected move):

The (bullish) long call spread and (bullish) short put spread generated:

Bearish: Here's the same thing but from a bearish price target, -20%, 30 days:

And the (bearish) long put spread and (bearish) short call spread generated:

In both of these scenarios we are taking what the options market is giving, not looking to recent highs and lows from the past month as a target, because the options market doesn't see those levels realistically happening for another 3 months, and not on this earnings event.

Neutral: The no man's land of the stock being exactly between these recent levels offers a certain probability that the stock goes somewhat sideways from here until more clarity arrives on the length of global recession. A neutral target 1 month out using OptionsAI technology generates an iron condor, again, using expected moves from the options market for strike selection, selling to both the bulls and the bears beyond the expected move:

Actionable Insights from the Options Market

Earnings event expected moves
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